For years, higher education leaders talked about the coming “demographic cliff.” Fewer high school graduates. Smaller classes. Less overall demand.
We’re now in it.
In some parts of the country — particularly the Northeast and Midwest — the number of traditional college-aged students is declining meaningfully.
Smaller private colleges and tuition-dependent regional universities are feeling it first. Discount rates are rising. Some schools are merging. Others are closing.
But what’s striking is how uneven this has been.
At the same time that some institutions are struggling to fill seats, others are expanding. Vanderbilt is investing in new programs and campus growth. Northeastern continues to build out additional campuses and global pathways. New York University is extending its global reach. Well-resourced institutions are leaning in, not pulling back.
The headline says “fewer students,” but the reality is more concentrated demand.
Families sometimes assume that fewer overall students means admissions will broadly become easier. That isn’t what we’re seeing — particularly at the most selective tier. Demand for strong brands, financial stability and clear career outcomes remains intense. As uncertainty increases, applicants cluster more tightly around institutions perceived as stable and durable.
The pressure is not evenly distributed across the market. It is shifting.
For families targeting highly selective universities, the demographic cliff does not lower the bar. These schools recruit nationally and globally, and they draw from the strongest segments of the applicant pool, which are not shrinking. Many are expanding strategically while continuing to manage yield through tools like Early Decision.
For families building college lists, this matters. Institutional stability deserves more attention than it used to. Is a school investing or cutting? Is enrollment stable, or reliant on tuition discounting? Is the applicant pool growing nationally, or shrinking regionally?
None of this replaces academic fit or student preference. But the landscape is shifting. The demographic cliff doesn’t simplify admissions. It reshapes where the pressure sits.
That’s the part many families haven’t fully processed yet.
Marc is the author of Untangling the Ivy League, a best-selling guidebook on the Ancient Eight. He earned a BA from Cornell University and an MBA from University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill. Marc chaired the admissions ambassadors at Cornell and the admissions advisory board at UNC.
